Saturday, November 06, 2004



It appears that an expanded war in the Middle East is almost a certainty. With Colin Powell and Richard Armitage set to leave the State Dept., the last voices of moderation will leave the administration. Powell will likely be replace by Paul Wolfowicz, the man who was the leading voice within the administration urging the invasion of Iraq. Note the following excerpt from an article in the newspaper Haaretz in Israel:

Next Thursday, barring some unexpected change in his schedule, Mofaz (Israeli Defense Minister) is scheduled to chair a meeting about a fateful issue: Iran's nuclearization. The date was set last month, but U.S. President George Bush's victory Tuesday over Senator John Kerry, which is equivalent to the defeat of the line of thinking of the Sharett from Boston to that of the Ben-Gurion from Texas, lends the discussion additional importance. The use of military force against Iran is looking more and more likely. The coming year will be one of confrontation. The Iranians will not yield, Bush will not give in, Israel will not remain outside the collision. Even if it wanted to, Israel will not be able to prevent the Iranians from launching an escalation against it, which will precede and disrupt the American plan.

If Israel is indeed drawn into the conflict, Syria and Lebanon will almost certainly be dragged in too. There is a very good possibility that the governments of Jordon and Egypt will be destabilized to the point of collapse. You think its messy over there now.......

In any event, it would appear that with such a large escalation of the war, a draft is almost certainly eminent.

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